AF447 Rio De Janerio - Paris A330-200 missing over Atlantic

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Re: AF447 Rio De Janerio - Paris A330-200 missing over Atlantic

Post by Blackhawk » 03 Jun 2009, 19:32

http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/americas/ ... index.html

More debris found. They still say they believe it's highly unlikely to find survivors but aren't giving up on that yet. They also note the flight went through a severe thunderstorm, and also note that Air France received a bomb threat for flights from Buenos Aires to Paris...Terribly sad news to hear, I hope it doesn't turn out to be a terrorist attack.
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Re: AF447 Rio De Janerio - Paris A330-200 missing over Atlantic

Post by CK245 » 04 Jun 2009, 20:28

I found this interesting report http://www.weathergraphics.com/tim/af447/ as I was looking for some more information on the incident and I thought it'll be good to share it with the group! If you have time, read some of the comments below the report since there are some people that claim to be retired or active captains of airliners commenting on it!

Hopefully the CVR will be recovered and can shed some light on this tragedy!! May God Rest their souls!!

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Re: AF447 Rio De Janerio - Paris A330-200 missing over Atlantic

Post by Dennis » 04 Jun 2009, 22:25

I don't think terrorists are behind this. Usually, a terror group would've already claimed responsibility by now. And I don't see a place where France is involved that terrorist would want to plot against (do they have any separatist groups? rebels? any terror group against France?). However, my theory about severe weather (the positive lightning along with turbulence and maybe hail) may have been responsible.

Also, Eric Moody (the famous BA pilot who managed to control a 747 while it flew through ash) has blamed ETOPS for the accident, saying that had the aircraft had 4 engines it would've returned safely, and that we've pushed ETOPS over the limit, stating we need to return to multi-engined aircraft over the oceans and twins over land.
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Re: AF447 Rio De Janerio - Paris A330-200 missing over Atlantic

Post by Carlo » 05 Jun 2009, 02:20

There are (or at least were) quite a few terrorist groups against France.

GIA (Groupe Islamiste Armé. Algerian terrorist organisation)
ETA (Basque separatist movement)

and of course Al Q'aida

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Re: AF447 Rio De Janerio - Paris A330-200 missing over Atlantic

Post by RatherBFlyin » 05 Jun 2009, 02:51

Excellent weather analysis link there!

I think Moody is way off base with his comment about ETOPS, though. Anything that can bring down an A330 would have had exactly the same effect on a 747, A340, or even the A380. The only thing that ETOPS does is rate the reliability of the engines, it has nothing whatsoever to do with the design and structural integrity of the aircraft itself.

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Re: AF447 Rio De Janerio - Paris A330-200 missing over Atlantic

Post by Dennis » 05 Jun 2009, 02:51

That first group might be responsible as can Al Qaeda (though, as I mentioned, France isn't really involved with any US war except the one in Afghanistan).

I don't see ETA responsible. They operate mainly in Spain and their tactics involve car bombs rather than bomb a plane. Had the flight originated from Europe, I would not rule out ETA.
RatherBFlyin wrote:Anything that can bring down an A330 would have had exactly the same effect on a 747, A340, or even the A380. The only thing that ETOPS does is rate the reliability of the engines, it has nothing whatsoever to do with the design and structural integrity of the aircraft itself.
Many in airliners.net concluded that a multi-engined plane has twice the potential of an engine failure than a twin so A340/A380/747 all run a higher risk of being brought down.
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Re: AF447 Rio De Janerio - Paris A330-200 missing over Atlantic

Post by RatherBFlyin » 05 Jun 2009, 03:29

That is actually an incorrect theory as well. Each engine has the exact same potential for failure, but having four instead of two does not double the chances of having an engine fail on an aircraft.

Look at it this way (overly simplified). If an engine has a 1% (1 out of 100) chance of failing on a flight and there are four engines, that doesn't mean that the aircraft has a 4% chance of an engine failing. It is still a 1% chance overall, but looking at all four engines they have a 4 out of 400 chance of failing.

A twin engine jet would have the same chance of failure, but looking at both engines it looks like a 2 out of 200 chance of failing, so the four-engine jet appears to have a greater risk of an engine failure, but it isn't really the case.

If the Air France flight was brought down by weather (turbulence, lightning, etc) it is most likely a matter of the structural/performance limits of the aircraft having been exceeded and the number of engines has nothing to do with it. The big question is, will the 787 and A350 be delayed even further by increased requirements for structural strengthening/testing?

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Re: AF447 Rio De Janerio - Paris A330-200 missing over Atlantic

Post by APeX3181 » 05 Jun 2009, 04:47

Umm...ok....

Now it's being reported that none of the debris (including the oil slicks) are from flight 447.

http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/americas/ ... index.html

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Re: AF447 Rio De Janerio - Paris A330-200 missing over Atlantic

Post by NWADC9 » 05 Jun 2009, 06:15

Air France 447 - the TWA 800 of the Next Generation

This is getting weirder and weirder...
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Re: AF447 Rio De Janerio - Paris A330-200 missing over Atlantic

Post by Tom Alder » 05 Jun 2009, 17:22

APeX3181 wrote:Umm...ok....

Now it's being reported that none of the debris (including the oil slicks) are from flight 447.

http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/americas/ ... index.html

even the seat? :?
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Re: AF447 Rio De Janerio - Paris A330-200 missing over Atlantic

Post by NWADC9 » 05 Jun 2009, 17:42

Then where did that stuff come from? Could there have been another plane crash?
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Re: AF447 Rio De Janerio - Paris A330-200 missing over Atlantic

Post by Blackhawk » 05 Jun 2009, 20:41

This is turning into an episode of Lost...Kind of creepy.
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Re: AF447 Rio De Janerio - Paris A330-200 missing over Atlantic

Post by FJ flyer » 05 Jun 2009, 22:44

I think the Brazilians picked up some debris (probably junk) and are now looking for the aircraft seats found earlier in the week. If the fuel/oil wasn't from AF447, then it's clear likely it was all burnt up coming down meaning there was an explosion at altitude...
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Re: AF447 Rio De Janerio - Paris A330-200 missing over Atlantic

Post by Northwestdc9 » 06 Jun 2009, 16:28

Indeed an extremely mysterious and movie type disappearance. Storms, south america, night time... bam it's gone.

Most likely scenario is a stall at low altitude from pitot tube being clogged or a microburst forcing them violently into the water and the storm washing the debris away. Who knows.
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Re: AF447 Rio De Janerio - Paris A330-200 missing over Atlantic

Post by DMM200 » 06 Jun 2009, 19:29

Northwestdc9 wrote:Indeed an extremely mysterious and movie type disappearance. Storms, south america, night time... bam it's gone.

Most likely scenario is a stall at low altitude from pitot tube being clogged or a microburst forcing them violently into the water and the storm washing the debris away. Who knows.
The Aircraft was over FL300, and was flying normally up until the storm came into the picture.
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Re: AF447 Rio De Janerio - Paris A330-200 missing over Atlantic

Post by DMM200 » 06 Jun 2009, 20:18

Strike my last post Nick, your theory may actually be right:

http://news.aol.com/article/brazil-air- ... h%2F511716
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Re: AF447 Rio De Janerio - Paris A330-200 missing over Atlantic

Post by DMM200 » 09 Jun 2009, 14:05

http://news.aol.com/article/brazil-air- ... h%2F511716

They just found the tail (vertical stabilizer) of the aircraft.
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Re: AF447 Rio De Janerio - Paris A330-200 missing over Atlantic

Post by sanins192 » 09 Jun 2009, 16:32

Is it just me or does it look like a Concorde tail? When I saw it in the newspaper it looked like an AF Concorde tail, although that is probably because of the top part which is missing. I do not want to imagine the condition of the rest of the aircraft. It must be pretty soon before they find the all important black boxes.
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Re: AF447 Rio De Janerio - Paris A330-200 missing over Atlantic

Post by NWADC9 » 09 Jun 2009, 16:47

sanins192 wrote:Is it just me or does it look like a Concorde tail? When I saw it in the newspaper it looked like an AF Concorde tail, although that is probably because of the top part which is missing. I do not want to imagine the condition of the rest of the aircraft. It must be pretty soon before they find the all important black boxes.
The bottom portion of the tail is still underwater in that picture.
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Re: AF447 Rio De Janerio - Paris A330-200 missing over Atlantic

Post by sanins192 » 09 Jun 2009, 17:03

This is the picture I saw: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/telegraph/mu ... 19905i.jpg

I think it is just the angle it is in the water which makes it look shorter. Now that I look at it even in that photo it looks too tall to resemble Concorde's tail.
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