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SimAirline.net - Message Boards • View topic - JAL in talks with AA...and DL!

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 Post subject: JAL in talks with AA...and DL!
PostPosted: 13 Sep 2009, 23:06 
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Konichiwa

Troubled Japanese carrier JAL is in the midst of a restructuring and has been talking with US carriers to allow them to become majority shareholders in exchange for help. DL was the first carrier to approach JAL and is expected to offer nearly $300 million. Meanwhile, AA will not let a partner of the oneworld alliance to slip away and form an alliance with a rival carrier, so they also are talking about a potential offer.

If this report is correct, then I think DL is the carrier. It would be an extended codeshare: JAL wants to codeshare with AF-KLM, so with DL in the mix, it's a world wide connection: Europe, North America, and Asia.

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 Post subject: Re: JAL in talks with AA...and DL!
PostPosted: 14 Sep 2009, 02:35 
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Now this is INTERESTING. I've been following closely on A.net and elsewhere.

The master plan at Delta/Air France is coming together. Imagine this.

A truly premier, global mega airline covering the entire world with alliance partners across every continent.
Technically not a single carrier because of legal issues but a single massive joint-venture spanning from France to Atlanta to Tokyo.

The fleet is incredible! I put together a quick spread sheet totaling up AF/KL, DL/NW and JL together and it's insane. We're talking over 2,400 aircraft in mainline, cargo and regional fleets.
That's 279% larger than American Airlines and American Eagle!

Operating almost every major (infact there are only a few exceptions that I can think of) aircraft type in current service.

Hubs or major operations in just about every important business destination with hubs/focus cities in:
Atlanta, Cincinnati, Detroit, Minneapolis/St. Paul, Los Angeles, Seattle, New York, Boston, Washington DC, London, Paris, Tokyo, Osaka, Nagoya and Honolulu.

Worldwide domination and thy name is Skyteam.

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 Post subject: Re: JAL in talks with AA...and DL!
PostPosted: 14 Sep 2009, 02:40 
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I was thinking JAL would have called on for help earlier but now that it has with AA and DL it is interesting! And with what Nick pointed out, wow wondering just how big of an impact this with have in the industry!

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 Post subject: Re: JAL in talks with AA...and DL!
PostPosted: 14 Sep 2009, 03:14 
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Well, with Delta having so many aircraft in their fleet, and with how big they are, that's who I would pick to codeshare with if I was JAL.

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 Post subject: Re: JAL in talks with AA...and DL!
PostPosted: 14 Sep 2009, 05:34 
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Jacob Mobley wrote:
Well, with Delta having so many aircraft in their fleet, and with how big they are, that's who I would pick to codeshare with if I was JAL.
It also helps that Delta is their largest competitor besides ANA, they know that if they could combine operations and collaborate with Delta, they would have a powerhouse hub which would hopefully solve both DL's and JL's pacific profitability problems.

Another interesting, though horrifying statistic.... They would, together operate just over 41% of ALL CRJ-100/200/700/900s EVER built.
We're talking 122 747s, 208 757s, 260 A32Xs, 207 737s, 230 DC9/M80/M90s and so on, the numbers of one SINGLE fleet type, tower far above most airlines' entire fleet.

That's 19% more aircraft than American Airlines. Did I mention those are ONLY regional aircraft?

The sheer size of this beast is just mind boggling.

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 Post subject: Re: JAL in talks with AA...and DL!
PostPosted: 14 Sep 2009, 07:59 
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Northwestdc9 wrote:
The sheer size of this beast is just mind boggling.

You seem pretty certain this is going to even happen, Nick! :laugh: :laugh:


So, what if.
Where would it leave the other US airlines? UA, AA, not so much CO, and especially NH?

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 Post subject: Re: JAL in talks with AA...and DL!
PostPosted: 14 Sep 2009, 09:06 
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The only thing I'm slightly worried about with all these merger talks going on is it'll all trun into a three horse race with the alliances all teaming up and battling it out. Realistically this probably wouldn't happen but it's possible.

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 Post subject: Re: JAL in talks with AA...and DL!
PostPosted: 14 Sep 2009, 09:32 
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Yeah, and it could be the beginning of a changing era in the airline industry.
We're used to seeing airlines who operate solely under their own name and really don't affiliate with other airlines except with cheaper flights within an alliance or codeshare.

But now, we could see group airlines formed from alliances or airlines seeking backup (i.e. JAL and Delta).
What will happen to those airlines that stay on their own?

It could go either way.

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 Post subject: Re: JAL in talks with AA...and DL!
PostPosted: 14 Sep 2009, 13:35 
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This would actually be a very good thing for the airlines involved, since it would allow them greater flexibility to consolidate routes and shrink capacity. Unfortunately it will leave the other airlines without that flexibility, and thus not able to adjust to changing market conditions as readily. It'll be interesting to see what the anti-trust people have to say about this.

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 Post subject: Re: JAL in talks with AA...and DL!
PostPosted: 14 Sep 2009, 14:55 
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Big picture for American and Delta:
-American needs this a lot more than Delta. They have been wanting to expand their Pacific profile for 25 years, and have been stymied every time (Pan Am-United 1985, on-and-off merger talks with Northwest, rotue expansions and withdrawals in Asia).
-American has spent the last eight years repairing its balance sheet and focusing on internal controls, reversing the industry leadership of the '80s and '90s. Is this finally time to break out? I was personally surprised that American did not swoop in to try to buy Northwest and achieve its long-term goal. Buying JAL would also be difficult and with less benefit.
-What is Delta's objective? Is it Japan or Asia? Long-term, I've been saying that Northwest (Delta) needs to find a way to overfly Japan to better compete with other U.S. carriers. Yes, creating your own true hub in Japan reduces that need, but let's face it, the Japanese economy has stagnated for two decades while China has grabbed the attention. If JAL can become an equal in the partnership, that's great. But what about Korean Air? This is the leading transpacific Asian carrier, and is a more efficient business than JAL.

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 Post subject: Re: JAL in talks with AA...and DL!
PostPosted: 15 Sep 2009, 04:17 
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True, it would be nice to see some more American tails popping up in the Pacific.

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 Post subject: Re: JAL in talks with AA...and DL!
PostPosted: 15 Sep 2009, 05:12 
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Let me set the record straight. I have no confidence in this deal, I highly doubt it will happen but it's definitely fun to think about.

I have the fleet list put together: http://and1.dnsalias.com:666/Hosting/combinedfleet.htm
That's just incredible.

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 Post subject: Re: JAL in talks with AA...and DL!
PostPosted: 15 Sep 2009, 05:19 
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INSANE.......I don't think anyone's gonna be able to even come close to how many aircraft are in the air every hour like Delta/JAL, not even SWA.

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 Post subject: Re: JAL in talks with AA...and DL!
PostPosted: 15 Sep 2009, 05:45 
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Northwestdc9 wrote:
I have the fleet list put together: http://and1.dnsalias.com:666/Hosting/combinedfleet.htm

That is impressive. 2440.

Nick, you really had your priorities right when you made that sheet :laugh:

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 Post subject: Re: JAL in talks with AA...and DL!
PostPosted: 15 Sep 2009, 13:28 
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Here's the thing, though. That total number of aircraft could be cut by 10%-20%, even as much as 30%, if the deal goes through. Consolidation and capacity cuts will shrink that number significantly.

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 Post subject: Re: JAL in talks with AA...and DL!
PostPosted: 15 Sep 2009, 19:12 
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RatherBFlyin wrote:
Here's the thing, though. That total number of aircraft could be cut by 10%-20%, even as much as 30%, if the deal goes through. Consolidation and capacity cuts will shrink that number significantly.
Ok, let's say they do cut it by as much as 30% (Doubt it, maybe 10%), that's about 700 aircraft gone, leaving them with 1700 or so. That is STILL by almost a thousand aircraft, the largest fleet in the world.

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